AFC Championship Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will meet on Sunday at 6:40 P.M. Eastern in the AFC Championship Game. The Kansas City Chiefs survived an upset from the Cleveland Browns last Sunday to advance in the NFL Playoffs. The Buffalo Bills bested the Ravens on Saturday night to punch their ticket to Sunday’s conference championship. 

The Chiefs are a three-point favorite over the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs are -145 to win, and the Bills are +145 to upset Kansas City. The over/under for the contest has been set at 53.5 points.

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Buffalo’s First AFC Championship Since 1993

Josh Allen and the Bills will enter Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night in the franchise’s first AFC Championship Game appearance in nearly 30 years. The Bills won the AFC East this season with a record of 13-3. 

Last weekend in the AFC Divisional Round, the Bills kept the Ravens out of the endzone all night. Bills cornerback Taron Johnson returned a Lamar Jackson interception 101 yards to put Buffalo up 17-3 in the third quarter. On Baltimore’s ensuing possession, Jackson went down with a concussion.

The Ravens were unable to respond without Jackson, and no more scoring occurred the rest of the game. The Bills defense will need to put in a similar performance on Sunday to upset the Chiefs.

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 Kansas City’s Third Straight AFC Championship Game Appearance

The Chiefs will play for their third straight AFC Championship on Sunday night. The Chiefs survived last weekend at home against the Browns. Kansas City, who won the game 22-15, held off Cleveland’s second-half rally to progress to the AFC Championship.

In the third quarter, Patrick Mahomes left the game with a concussion. This injury showed the major role that Mahomes plays on his football team. The Chiefs looked like a different team without him. Backup quarterback Chad Henne couldn’t lead the offense like the reigning Super Bowl MVP, gutsy fourth-down conversion aside.

It’s still unclear if Mahomes will be ready to go on Sunday. If he passes concussion protocol, it will be announced later in the week. Even if he does play, he may not be at 100%.

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The Picks

I believe that Kansas City is a better team than Buffalo. Buffalo is gaining traction in the league, but I don’t think this is their year to win it all. Despite this, if Mahomes doesn’t play, I think Buffalo will win this game.

Henne helped the Chiefs win last week, but he made some awful throws in the process. If he makes these mistakes against Buffalo, the Bills would be able to hurt the Chiefs. Allen has been sensational this season. Without Mahomes, I give the offensive edge to the Bills.

This is also the second meeting of the season between the two teams. The Chiefs defeated the Bills earlier this season by a score of 26-17. The assumption is Mahomes will play, but this game should still be close even if he’s leading the Chiefs. I expect the AFC Championship to be a defensive battle.

I’m taking the Bills at (+3) and under 53.5 points.

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