The college football season is turning down the home stretch and that means that there are Heisman moments waiting around the corner for a lot of the top candidates in the country. I want to break down the stories of some of the top guys and how they could possibly hoist the Trophy later this year and I think that that will give us a better idea of the odds value on these players.
Joe Burrow (+125)
Burrow has had a great season and has completely caught a lot of fans and analysts off guard. Not to take anything away from Burrow’s success this season, but it is clear that the offensive philosophies have changed at LSU and this has changed Burrow’s play tremendously.
I think that betting on Burrow right now at these odds is relatively foolish and I have basically everyone else on the board at odds that were much higher than they currently are. I cannot bring myself to bet Burrow simply because I don’t think that he wins without beating Alabama in a week and a half. As we look down this list, 5 of the top 6 players on this list are on undefeated football teams and I think that the Heisman winner will ultimately be coming from an undefeated team.
It is too late in the season to lose and then regain Heisman hype, especially since the Alabama game is the only big threat to LSU until the SEC Championship or bowl season. Is Burrow going to lose to Alabama and then play lights out against Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M and vault himself back over Tua who beat him less than a month ago? I just don’t think that his year is THAT great statistically that he would be considered at that point.
If you want to bet on Burrow to win the Heisman, bet on LSU to beat Alabama at +210. Even if Burrow wins, he will have to fade any one of three Ohio State players having great games on a great schedule to ramp up a Heisman campaign.
Tua Tagovailoa (+200)
I am not actively betting on Tua, but I would understand if you did. Tua should be good to go in 10 days to take on LSU and I do expect him to win this game. However, I actually think we see sloppy play from both QBs at times and I would still be concerned with Tua playing Auburn and Georgia/Florida in back-to-back weeks to finish the campaign.
Tua has issues scaling up his timing against elite defenses and this results in him throwing a lot of bad picks against the best teams on his schedule compared to every other game. Even if he beats Burrow, I could see a similar situation to last year where the clear favorite, Tua, limps into the Heisman ceremony coming off of his worst performance of his career against Georgia. I have seen nothing all year to assume that he has fixed these decision making issues and I do believe that they will tend to show up against elite competition.
I still think that betting Bama to beat LSU, Auburn, and Georgia is the better way to play Tua at these odds.
Jalen Hurts (+300)
I just have no interest here either with the loss to Kansas State. Hurts will likely end the year on the outside of the playoff picture and I think that there are too many great players within the playoff that they will give the award to someone is not on a top 4 team in the country at that point.
Hurts also lacks a big game late in the season to prove himself. There are no top end Big 12 teams that will seem like a huge game and a huge win for Jalen to steal the day late.
Ohio State has 3 guys that have real Heisman-like stats at 3 different positions and I think that this could hurt them all.
Justin Fields (+600)
has the highest odds and it is simply because he is a quarterback. At this point, Fields does not have the stat lines to compete with the other QBs in terms of yardage because he has been limited significantly by the run game and blowouts.
Fields does have an incredible TD to INT ratio and a good completion percentage, but the overall stats aren’t where they need to be. I do think that they could get there with big games in the last 3 games of the season against Penn St., Michigan, and in the Big Ten Championship game, but we’ll get back to that in a minute.
Chase Young (+1000)
has vaulted up boards significantly in the last week after his insane performance vs. Wisconsin. Young has gotten incredible publicity and notoriety for his play and I do think he has a real shot to win the trophy due to his presence on the field and his stats. Young has an outside shot at approaching the 24 sack record in a single season held by Terrell Suggs. He is clearly the best player in college football and that will count for something.
J.K. Dobbins (+5000)
also has an outside shot to jump into the conversation at least. Dobbins has had less than 35 carries in the second half all season and is second in the country in rushing yards. This is one of those stats that COULD be pushed down the stretch that has not really been talked about at all.
The biggest key for all of the Ohio State guys is their final schedule and I think that the only person that can even rival it is Tua. Penn State could easily be a top 4 team by the time they head to Columbus to face the Buckeyes and Michigan vs. Ohio State is always the most watched regular season game of the year. Then they would play in the Big Ten championship team against a well-ranked team that they should dominate.
This schedule lines up for any one of these guys to have consecutive big games on the biggest stages of the season right before the votes are casted. For that reason, I sprinkled a little bit on Young and Dobbins today as they are both set up to make a legitimate late charge from the back of the pack. No matter who you bet for the 2019 Heisman, check them out and make a bet at https://www.a1pph.com/ our top pay per head bookie!
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