Betting on an NFL MVP takes a lot more than just trying to figure out who will or will not have a good season. NFL MVP is not the most predictable or obvious future to bet on due to the sheer amount of players that are live to win this award at the end of the season. Patrick Mahomes comes into this season at +400 as the pretty clear favorite, but there are a lot of options further down the line that I prefer.
Top End Pick
Andrew Luck (+750)
Luck is the fourth best number on the board behind Mahomes, Brees, and Rodgers and I actually think that this number is a bit low based on his situation. In the modern NFL, we are not used to seeing anyone besides the quarterback of one of the best offenses win this award.
Since 2007, there has only been one player that was not a quarterback to win the award. Adrian Peterson ran for 25% more yards than any other back in the league, eventually leading him to the MVP award. I think this stat bodes well for Luck this season.
The Colts defense should improve with a lot of young players being added to this roster and improving as a unit, but they are not going to be a team that shuts down every team and doesn’t require offensive support. The Colts are planning to score a lot of points this season and I think that Andrew Luck will be the talk of the NFL if it does happen.
Luck is a great game-manager, but he is also elite when it comes to making plays. This season, the Colts have added two high-end receiving options with unique skill sets that should help this offense become more explosive. Devin Funchess should make the Colts red zone package even more deadly with his large frame and Parris Campbell is one of the most explosive athletes in the NFL right now.
If Luck can stay healthy and use the speed and size that is now in his receiving core, I expect him to have a monster seasonI. Luck’s numbers last season were relatively close to Patrick Mahomes while Luck was injured early in the season. With these new toys at his disposal, I expect Luck to match Mahomes and make a great case for MVP .
Baker Mayfield comes into this season as the clear starter and should now be much more experienced after one season of NFL duty in the books. Now, Mayfield has a plethora of high-powered offensive options in his offense and I think that he has a chance to take the league by storm.
At +1300, Baker is not a super value option, but I do think that an MVP bet on Baker can easily be another way to bet on the Browns success this season. If the Browns play like an elite team, Mayfield WILL be in the MVP conversation late in the season.
Kyler Murray is +10000 to win NFL MVP and I think this is a decent dart throw. I am not on the Kyler Murray hype train in the long-term, as I think that he has many more flaws than most. That being said, IF Kilff Kingsbury can flip this Cardinals offense into an explosive one, Murray’s statistics will be incredible if he can stay healthy.
I expect Murray to make a lot of mistakes, which I think will be his downfall early. If he can avoid the mistakes or make up for them with crazy statistics, I think he could be a good value here.
Other Position Pick
My favorite non-QB bet here is Christian McCaffrey at +5000. I don’t think that CMC will win MVP but I do think that I can draw up a realistic situation where he does, which cannot be said about a lot of backs.
He gets PLENTY of touches. He has breakaway speed in both the run game and the receiving game. If he can break a few more plays this season, he could lead running backs in total yards by a significant amount.
The key here would be that the average Carolina Panthers would need to have a great season on the back of CMC. I am relatively high on the Panthers offense this season and I do think it’s possible that they win their division over the Falcons and Saints. If CMC can lead backs in yardage and the Panthers make a surprise playoff visit, I think CMC has to be in the MVP race.
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