There has been some interesting results through the first four weeks of the NFL in games that had 3-point or greater line movements. Due to this, I have been keeping a close eye on early line movements and stay diligent to be informed as game time approaches. Here are two games for NFL Week 5 that have seen the biggest early line movements.
Ravens @ Browns | Sunday, Oct. 4 | Open: CLE +1 | Current: CLE +3
This one opened offshore at Bookie.ag on Sunday night at BAL -1 but took a huge jump to -2.5 Monday morning and opened in Vegas and most other offshore books at -3 on Monday afternoon.
The Browns put up 42 points on the Raiders, but once again found a creative way to lose, a heartbreaking 45-42 OT loss. Baker Mayfield threw for 295 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs while rookie running back Nick Chubb ran for 105 yards on only 3 carries. The Browns defensive unit needs to live up to their lofty preseason expectations.
After keeping the Steelers off the scoreboard in the second half, the Ravens moved to 3-1 with a 26-14 on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens D looks like their D of old, and could potentially give Mayfield a rude awakening to the tough AFC North.
My biggest question here is did a huge bet move this line 1.5-points in one move or was it something else? Finding the answer to this will tell you where to put your money.
Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday, Oct. 4 | Open: LAC -7 | Current: LAC -5
The opening line of LAC -7 did not last long, with a quick move to 6.5 Sunday night, 6 on Monday morning, 5.5 Monday afternoon where it stayed until right now. As I was writing this, Wednesday afternoon, the line moved from 5.5 to 5.
I talked about the Raiders above, as they got their first win of the season against the Browns this past Sunday. Derek Carr threw for 437 yards, 4 TDs and 2 INTs in the win, and Marshawn Lynch ran for 130 and caught 3 passes for 27 yards. Both Amari Cooper and Jared Cook went over 100 yards through the air. Too bad the Raiders defense doesn’t have Khalil Mack though.
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The Chargers moved to 2-2 with a 29-27 win at home against the 49ers. Rivers threw for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns and threw an interception that was returned for a TD on the first series of the game. The Chargers went down 14-0 after they missed a 54-yard field goal and 49er QB CJ Beathard moved the offense into the endzone.
So as you see no Week 5 line movements have hit the magic number as yet, and we all know 3 is the magic number. I will get into it a little later the trend I have been seeing with games with a line move of 3 or more, but I am waiting to see if the trend continues or if it was a crazy coincidence. I love trying to find trends and I love it even more when I find one that wins me money.
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Of the 15 games this week, only the two above had movements of 2, with 5 games moving a half point, with 4 games each having a 1-point shift and no movement at all.
I will be watching as the weekend gets closer to see if we have any further movements in point spreads. Be sure to pay close attention to why they may be moving, and figure out whether you want to play or fade the move. I will be sure to keep you informed if I see anything interesting so we can all beat the bookie.
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