While I have speculated on my national radio show on Yahoo Sports Radio about numerous opportunities on the futures market on Over or Under posted Season Win Totals against the CG Technology Las Vegas Line in the NFL, it is time to buckle down and post my Top 4 Best Bets including my Top Rated 2 Unit Selection for the 2015 NFL Season and make it official. Last Year I went 4-1 with those futures bets with the Buffalo Bills busting out the Over 6 wins nailing my Top Play last Season.
With the NFL Preseason underway, and tons of news and information flowing from all NFL training camps, not to mention some injuries already to key players such as the Texans RB Foster, Jets QB Smith and other key players for teams already out long term, I have a better feel based on facts here to post up my 4 Best Bets this Season.
Kansas City OVER 8 Wins (-115)
I love the Chiefs this year, and not because I live in Kansas City, but I like what I have seen from them in the offseason and what they have stressed in training camp, which is throwing the ball. Jeremy Maclin provides the deep threat they need, not to mention speed. Andy Reid is a masterful coach and he has an offense here that is loaded at every position, and 2 deep at skill positions on offense as well, especially at RB. The defense will be improved with the return of LB Johnson to the fray, not to mention a solid DL and two great rush ends as well as free safety Eric Berry returning to camp in great form. KC’s special teams are rock solid as well including speedy return men as well as the best punter in the NFL. Kansas City managed 9 wins last year without ever throwing a TD to a wide receiver. Look for them to contend for the AFC West Crown and be a playoff team in 2015 behind the more than capable Alex Smith at QB.
1 Unit Selections
Tampa Bay UNDER 6 Wins (-130)
Lovie Smith has his hands full here this season, breaking in a rookie QB on a bad football team. Everyone else in this division has improved and bettering a 2 win season last year is no doubt on the table, but going over 6 wins is going to be difficult. The Bucs ranked 30th on offense in 2014 in the NFL and 25th on defense, and while that may improve, I have learned over 23 years of capping the NFL, a rookie QB on a bad football team has a serious learning curve and quite frankly Winston is not ready for this leap and would be better served learning behind a veteran QB and I would not be at all surprised to see Mike Glennon this year at some point. Look for lots of Doug Martin at RB this season as their primary weapon and the Bucs should be able to get some passing going with Mike Evans and rookie Kenny Bell also has shown great promise in camp. The defense is below average and the pass defense was not addressed in the offseason.
Minnesota Vikings OVER 7 Wins (-150)
Love the Vikes this year, love their head coach Zimmer, and love the fact RB Petersen is in camp and should have a big year. QB Bridgewater forced into duty last year showed signs of composure and greatness as well as some solid play at TE and WR. Last year Bridgewater never played with AP at running back and never had the luxury of an 8 man box on defense to pick apart or break containment with his legs. That will change this year, along with adding Mike Wallace at WR in free agency is a big plus as well. Norv Turner is calling the offense and the division outside of Green Bay is theirs for the taking as the Lions are iffy at best and the Bears, well they are da Bears. The defense will be tough minded and the rookie LB Kendricks out of UCLA will have an immediate impact. This is a 9 win this season and the schedule is favorable provided they stay upright at QB, and veteran Shaun Hill was brought in as a backup. One thing you get with the Vikes under Zimmer, a never say die attitude and that is worth a win or two gents.
Cincinnati Bengals OVER 8 Wins (-135)
If you look at this roster, it is on paper one of the most impressive in all of the AFC. Yes the Bengals have banked 10 wins three years in a row, and yes they dumped in the first round of the playoffs, yes the Steelers and Ravens loom large in this division, and yes Andy Dalton is an enigma wrapped in a riddle, however they are loaded at all skill positions, the defense is solid and like I said their roster is loaded with talent all over the place. I feel this is a make or break year for head coach Marvin Lewis, and he knows it. The last time this team won less than this stated total of 8 was in 2010. Geno Atkins returns on defense and the defense needs to improve from a 22nd overall ranking last year and I think they will. Cincy has great special teams players, and the offense can flat out run the ball (ranked 6th in NFL last year), and Dalton is more than capable behind a good offensive line. I suggest this team can win this division, as both Pitt and Baltimore have issues all over the place on defense and Cincy can score with anyone. I expect another 10 win season, 9 wins at worst as this team is balanced and capable.